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MarketEdge
World Cup betting view · v67
Predictions

Live knockout bracket and Jarvis predictions

The group stage is complete or knockout fixtures are being mapped. This page now starts from the actual Sportmonks knockout bracket and shows Jarvis predictions for those fixtures where teams are known.

Simulation status
Official 100k Monte Carlo

100,000 runs · generated 06 Aug, 14:26. Fixtures are pulled dynamically, so knockout predictions update after Sync fixtures → Odds → Simulation.

Publish-grade 100kGroup fixtures completed: 72/72Mapped knockout fixtures: 32Open actual live bracket
Projected winner
Spain

50.3% title probability · 90.1% final probability.

Actual knockout fixtures

This is the tournament reality layer. If a round is empty, Sportmonks has not yet assigned those participants in the fixture feed.

Round of 32

Sun 28 Jun, 21:00 · Round of 32

South Africa vs Canada

Los Angeles Stadium
FT
Home
South Africa
v
Away
Canada
Open match centre
Mon 29 Jun, 19:00 · Round of 32

Brazil vs Japan

Houston Stadium · Houston
FT
Home
Brazil
v
Away
Japan
Open match centre
Mon 29 Jun, 22:30 · Round of 32

Germany vs Paraguay

Boston Stadium · Foxborough
FT_PEN
Home
Germany
v
Away
Paraguay
Open match centre
Tue 30 Jun, 03:00 · Round of 32

Netherlands vs Morocco

Monterrey Stadium · Guadalupe
FT_PEN
Home
Netherlands
v
Away
Morocco
Open match centre
Tue 30 Jun, 19:00 · Round of 32

Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway

Dallas Stadium · Arlington
FT
Home
Côte d'Ivoire
v
Away
Norway
Open match centre
Tue 30 Jun, 23:00 · Round of 32

France vs Sweden

New York New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
FT
Home
France
v
Away
Sweden
Open match centre
Wed 01 Jul, 04:00 · Round of 32

Mexico vs Ecuador

Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City
FT
Home
Mexico
v
Away
Ecuador
Open match centre
Wed 01 Jul, 18:00 · Round of 32

England vs Congo DR

Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
FT
Home
England
v
Away
Congo DR
Open match centre
Wed 01 Jul, 22:00 · Round of 32

Belgium vs Senegal

Seattle Stadium · Seattle
AET
Home
Belgium
v
Away
Senegal
Open match centre
Thu 02 Jul, 02:00 · Round of 32

United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

San Francisco Bay Area Stadium · Santa Clara
FT
Home
United States
v
Away
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Open match centre
Thu 02 Jul, 21:00 · Round of 32

Spain vs Austria

Los Angeles Stadium
FT
Home
Spain
v
Away
Austria
Open match centre
Fri 03 Jul, 01:00 · Round of 32

Portugal vs Croatia

Toronto Stadium · Toronto
FT
Home
Portugal
v
Away
Croatia
Open match centre
Fri 03 Jul, 05:00 · Round of 32

Switzerland vs Algeria

Vancouver Stadium · Vancouver
FT
Home
Switzerland
v
Away
Algeria
Open match centre
Fri 03 Jul, 20:00 · Round of 32

Australia vs Egypt

Dallas Stadium · Arlington
FT_PEN
Home
Australia
v
Away
Egypt
Open match centre
Sat 04 Jul, 00:00 · Round of 32

Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands

Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
AET
Home
Argentina
v
Away
Cape Verde Islands
Open match centre
Sat 04 Jul, 03:30 · Round of 32

Colombia vs Ghana

Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
FT
Home
Colombia
v
Away
Ghana
Open match centre

Round of 16

Sat 04 Jul, 19:00 · Round of 16

Canada vs Morocco

Houston Stadium · Houston
FT
Home
Canada
v
Away
Morocco
Open match centre
Sat 04 Jul, 23:00 · Round of 16

Paraguay vs France

Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
FT
Home
Paraguay
v
Away
France
Open match centre
Sun 05 Jul, 22:00 · Round of 16

Brazil vs Norway

New York New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
FT
Home
Brazil
v
Away
Norway
Open match centre
Mon 06 Jul, 03:00 · Round of 16

Mexico vs England

Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City
FT
Home
Mexico
v
Away
England
Open match centre
Mon 06 Jul, 21:00 · Round of 16

Portugal vs Spain

Dallas Stadium · Arlington
FT
Home
Portugal
v
Away
Spain
Open match centre
Tue 07 Jul, 02:00 · Round of 16

United States vs Belgium

Seattle Stadium · Seattle
FT
Home
United States
v
Away
Belgium
Open match centre
Tue 07 Jul, 18:00 · Round of 16

Argentina vs Egypt

Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
FT
Home
Argentina
v
Away
Egypt
Open match centre
Tue 07 Jul, 22:00 · Round of 16

Switzerland vs Colombia

Vancouver Stadium · Vancouver
FT_PEN
Home
Switzerland
v
Away
Colombia
Open match centre

Quarter-finals

Awaiting official fixture mapping.

Semi-finals

Tue 14 Jul, 21:00 · Semi-finals

France vs Spain

Dallas Stadium · Arlington
FT
Home
France
v
Away
Spain
Open match centre
Wed 15 Jul, 21:00 · Semi-finals

England vs Argentina

Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta
FT
Home
England
v
Away
Argentina
Open match centre

Final

Thu 09 Jul, 22:00 · Quarter-finals

France vs Morocco

Boston Stadium · Foxborough
FT
Home
France
v
Away
Morocco
Open match centre
Fri 10 Jul, 21:00 · Quarter-finals

Spain vs Belgium

Los Angeles Stadium
FT
Home
Spain
v
Away
Belgium
Open match centre
Sat 11 Jul, 23:00 · Quarter-finals

Norway vs England

Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
AET
Home
Norway
v
Away
England
Open match centre
Sun 12 Jul, 03:00 · Quarter-finals

Argentina vs Switzerland

Kansas City Stadium · Kansas City
AET
Home
Argentina
v
Away
Switzerland
Open match centre
Sat 18 Jul, 23:00 · 3rd Place Final

France vs England

Miami Stadium · Miami Gardens
FT
Home
France
v
Away
England
Open match centre
Sun 19 Jul, 21:00 · Final

Spain vs Argentina

New York New Jersey Stadium · East Rutherford
AET
Home
Spain
v
Away
Argentina
Open match centre

Jarvis predictions for mapped knockout matches

These are generated from the latest run for the actual knockout fixtures, not stale group-stage projections.

03 Jul · Round of 32

Australia vs Egypt

High risk
Model pick
Australia
40.4% home-win probability.
Betting action
Watch only
Australia is the model prediction. Risk flags mean check price and consider cover rather than treating it as a banker.
Market
1X2 Home
Current selection odds
—
Minimum acceptable odds
2.77+
Price verdict
No current odds · need 2.77+
Risk note
Draw or double-chance cover may be safer than a pure favourite bet.
Alternative watch: Draw · 31.8% · current draw odds — · min 3.52+. This is a cover/watch angle, not the model prediction.
Home
40.4%
Draw
31.8%
Away
27.7%
Current 1X2 oddsNo odds yet
Australia
—
Draw
—
Egypt
—
Current odds are bookmaker prices for this match. Minimum acceptable odds are Jarvis' required price after model probability and risk buffer. Bet only when current odds meet or beat the minimum.
Expected goals: 1.46 - 1.17
Draw cover advisedUnderdog live riskHigh volatilityHigh ConsensusVenue Travel Engine
Open match centre
07 Jul · Round of 16

Switzerland vs Colombia

High risk
Model pick
Colombia
37.4% away-win probability.
Betting action
Watch only
Colombia is the model prediction. Risk flags mean check price and consider cover rather than treating it as a banker.
Market
1X2 Away
Current selection odds
2.36
Minimum acceptable odds
2.99+
Price verdict
Too short at 2.36
Risk note
Draw or double-chance cover may be safer than a pure favourite bet.
Alternative watch: Draw · 32.9% · current draw odds 2.88 · min 3.40+. This is a cover/watch angle, not the model prediction.
Home
29.7%
Draw
32.9%
Away
37.4%
Current 1X2 oddsComplete
Switzerland
3.40
Draw
2.88
Colombia
2.36
Current odds are bookmaker prices for this match. Minimum acceptable odds are Jarvis' required price after model probability and risk buffer. Bet only when current odds meet or beat the minimum.
Expected goals: 1.51 - 1.53
Draw cover advisedUnderdog live riskHigh volatilityHigh Consensus
Open match centre
29 Jun · Round of 32

Germany vs Paraguay

Medium risk
Model pick
Germany
55.7% home-win probability.
Betting action
Watch only
Germany is the model prediction. Risk flags mean check price and consider cover rather than treating it as a banker.
Market
1X2 Home
Current selection odds
—
Minimum acceptable odds
1.94+
Price verdict
No current odds · need 1.94+
Risk note
Favourite price may be too short; avoid banker treatment.
Home
55.7%
Draw
27.6%
Away
16.7%
Current 1X2 oddsNo odds yet
Germany
—
Draw
—
Paraguay
—
Current odds are bookmaker prices for this match. Minimum acceptable odds are Jarvis' required price after model probability and risk buffer. Bet only when current odds meet or beat the minimum.
Expected goals: 1.82 - 1.14
Draw cover advisedFavourite trap riskGoalkeeper edgeStyle matchup edgeTactical Matchup Engine
Open match centre
30 Jun · Round of 32

Netherlands vs Morocco

High risk
Model pick
Netherlands
43.0% home-win probability.
Betting action
Watch only
Netherlands is the model prediction. Risk flags mean check price and consider cover rather than treating it as a banker.
Market
1X2 Home
Current selection odds
—
Minimum acceptable odds
2.60+
Price verdict
No current odds · need 2.60+
Risk note
Favourite price may be too short; avoid banker treatment.
Alternative watch: Draw · 31.8% · current draw odds — · min 3.52+. This is a cover/watch angle, not the model prediction.
Home
43%
Draw
31.8%
Away
25.2%
Current 1X2 oddsNo odds yet
Netherlands
—
Draw
—
Morocco
—
Current odds are bookmaker prices for this match. Minimum acceptable odds are Jarvis' required price after model probability and risk buffer. Bet only when current odds meet or beat the minimum.
Expected goals: 1.79 - 1.44
Draw cover advisedUnderdog live riskFavourite trap riskHigh volatilityHigh Consensus
Open match centre

Projected knockout path bands

Most likely winner

Based on latest published Jarvis simulation probabilities. Actual knockout fixtures are shown above once Sportmonks has populated the bracket.
1
Spain
Group H · winner 50.3%
50.3%

Most likely finalists

Based on latest published Jarvis simulation probabilities. Actual knockout fixtures are shown above once Sportmonks has populated the bracket.
1
Spain
Group H · winner 50.3%
90.1%
2
England
Group L · winner 25.2%
52.9%

Most likely semi-finalists

Based on latest published Jarvis simulation probabilities. Actual knockout fixtures are shown above once Sportmonks has populated the bracket.
1
Spain
Group H · winner 50.3%
100.0%
2
England
Group L · winner 25.2%
100.0%
3
Argentina
Group J · winner 0.0%
70.4%
4
Brazil
Group C · winner 7.3%
30.3%

Most likely quarter-finalists

Based on latest published Jarvis simulation probabilities. Actual knockout fixtures are shown above once Sportmonks has populated the bracket.
1
Spain
Group H · winner 50.3%
100.0%
2
England
Group L · winner 25.2%
100.0%
3
Argentina
Group J · winner 0.0%
100.0%
4
Belgium
Group G · winner 0.0%
100.0%
5
France
Group I · winner 0.0%
68.9%
6
Colombia
Group K · winner 3.6%
65.2%
7
Brazil
Group C · winner 7.3%
50.9%
8
Germany
Group E · winner 4.4%
40.7%

Most likely Round of 16 teams

Based on latest published Jarvis simulation probabilities. Actual knockout fixtures are shown above once Sportmonks has populated the bracket.
1
Spain
Group H · winner 50.3%
100.0%
2
England
Group L · winner 25.2%
100.0%
3
Argentina
Group J · winner 0.0%
100.0%
4
Belgium
Group G · winner 0.0%
100.0%
5
France
Group I · winner 0.0%
84.5%
6
Colombia
Group K · winner 3.6%
82.6%
7
Brazil
Group C · winner 7.3%
75.5%
8
Germany
Group E · winner 4.4%
70.3%
9
Canada
Group B · winner 1.0%
69.3%
10
Norway
Group I · winner 0.0%
65.5%
11
Netherlands
Group F · winner 4.2%
64.8%
12
Australia
Group D · winner 0.5%
60.5%
13
Sweden
Group F · winner 1.1%
60.4%
14
Morocco
Group C · winner 2.5%
59.8%
15
Egypt
Group G · winner 0.0%
56.9%
16
Ecuador
Group E · winner 0.0%
50.0%

Most likely Round of 32 teams

Based on latest published Jarvis simulation probabilities. Actual knockout fixtures are shown above once Sportmonks has populated the bracket.
1
Spain
Group H · winner 50.3%
100.0%
2
England
Group L · winner 25.2%
100.0%
3
Brazil
Group C · winner 7.3%
100.0%
4
Germany
Group E · winner 4.4%
100.0%
5
Netherlands
Group F · winner 4.2%
100.0%
6
Colombia
Group K · winner 3.6%
100.0%
7
Morocco
Group C · winner 2.5%
100.0%
8
Sweden
Group F · winner 1.1%
100.0%
9
Canada
Group B · winner 1.0%
100.0%
10
Australia
Group D · winner 0.5%
100.0%
11
Argentina
Group J · winner 0.0%
100.0%
12
Ecuador
Group E · winner 0.0%
100.0%
13
Senegal
Group I · winner 0.0%
100.0%
14
Cape Verde Islands
Group H · winner 0.0%
100.0%
15
Paraguay
Group D · winner 0.0%
100.0%
16
Switzerland
Group B · winner 0.0%
100.0%

Full winner probability board

Team
Qualify
QF
SF
Final
Winner
Spain
Group H · Rating 2088.0
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.1%
50.3%
England
Group L · Rating 1985.0
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
52.9%
25.2%
Brazil
Group C · Rating 1965.0
100.0%
50.9%
30.3%
15.6%
7.3%
Germany
Group E · Rating 1919.0
100.0%
40.7%
20.5%
10.0%
4.4%
Netherlands
Group F · Rating 1968.0
100.0%
29.5%
17.5%
9.0%
4.2%
Colombia
Group K · Rating 1864.0
100.0%
65.2%
23.9%
8.5%
3.6%
Morocco
Group C · Rating 1863.0
100.0%
19.6%
13.3%
6.1%
2.5%
Sweden
Group F · Rating 1768.0
100.0%
20.8%
8.3%
3.2%
1.1%
Canada
Group B · Rating 1660.0
100.0%
38.5%
10.1%
3.2%
1.0%
Australia
Group D · Rating 1690.0
100.0%
21.0%
5.7%
1.5%
0.5%
Jordan
Group J · Rating 1495.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Argentina
Group J · Rating 2069.0
100.0%
100.0%
70.4%
0.0%
0.0%
Ecuador
Group E · Rating 1744.0
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Senegal
Group I · Rating 1735.0
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Tunisia
Group F · Rating 1627.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Curacao
Group E · Rating 1511.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Korea Republic
Group A · Rating 1655.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Cape Verde Islands
Group H · Rating 1500.0
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Türkiye
Group D · Rating 1726.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Paraguay
Group D · Rating 1681.0
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Panama
Group L · Rating 1570.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Switzerland
Group B · Rating 1812.0
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Iraq
Group I · Rating 1555.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
New Zealand
Group G · Rating 1561.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

Active match predictions feeding the projection

Completed group matches are no longer shown here. Active knockout fixtures appear after Sportmonks assigns the official teams and the simulation reruns.

03 Jul · Round of 32

Australia vs Egypt

High risk
Model pick
Australia
40.4% home-win probability.
Betting action
Watch only
Australia is the model prediction. Risk flags mean check price and consider cover rather than treating it as a banker.
Market
1X2 Home
Current selection odds
—
Minimum acceptable odds
2.77+
Price verdict
No current odds · need 2.77+
Risk note
Draw or double-chance cover may be safer than a pure favourite bet.
Alternative watch: Draw · 31.8% · current draw odds — · min 3.52+. This is a cover/watch angle, not the model prediction.
Home
40.4%
Draw
31.8%
Away
27.7%
Current 1X2 oddsNo odds yet
Australia
—
Draw
—
Egypt
—
Current odds are bookmaker prices for this match. Minimum acceptable odds are Jarvis' required price after model probability and risk buffer. Bet only when current odds meet or beat the minimum.
Expected goals: 1.46 - 1.17
Draw cover advisedUnderdog live riskHigh volatilityHigh ConsensusVenue Travel Engine
Open match centre
07 Jul · Round of 16

Switzerland vs Colombia

High risk
Model pick
Colombia
37.4% away-win probability.
Betting action
Watch only
Colombia is the model prediction. Risk flags mean check price and consider cover rather than treating it as a banker.
Market
1X2 Away
Current selection odds
2.36
Minimum acceptable odds
2.99+
Price verdict
Too short at 2.36
Risk note
Draw or double-chance cover may be safer than a pure favourite bet.
Alternative watch: Draw · 32.9% · current draw odds 2.88 · min 3.40+. This is a cover/watch angle, not the model prediction.
Home
29.7%
Draw
32.9%
Away
37.4%
Current 1X2 oddsComplete
Switzerland
3.40
Draw
2.88
Colombia
2.36
Current odds are bookmaker prices for this match. Minimum acceptable odds are Jarvis' required price after model probability and risk buffer. Bet only when current odds meet or beat the minimum.
Expected goals: 1.51 - 1.53
Draw cover advisedUnderdog live riskHigh volatilityHigh Consensus
Open match centre
29 Jun · Round of 32

Germany vs Paraguay

Medium risk
Model pick
Germany
55.7% home-win probability.
Betting action
Watch only
Germany is the model prediction. Risk flags mean check price and consider cover rather than treating it as a banker.
Market
1X2 Home
Current selection odds
—
Minimum acceptable odds
1.94+
Price verdict
No current odds · need 1.94+
Risk note
Favourite price may be too short; avoid banker treatment.
Home
55.7%
Draw
27.6%
Away
16.7%
Current 1X2 oddsNo odds yet
Germany
—
Draw
—
Paraguay
—
Current odds are bookmaker prices for this match. Minimum acceptable odds are Jarvis' required price after model probability and risk buffer. Bet only when current odds meet or beat the minimum.
Expected goals: 1.82 - 1.14
Draw cover advisedFavourite trap riskGoalkeeper edgeStyle matchup edgeTactical Matchup Engine
Open match centre
30 Jun · Round of 32

Netherlands vs Morocco

High risk
Model pick
Netherlands
43.0% home-win probability.
Betting action
Watch only
Netherlands is the model prediction. Risk flags mean check price and consider cover rather than treating it as a banker.
Market
1X2 Home
Current selection odds
—
Minimum acceptable odds
2.60+
Price verdict
No current odds · need 2.60+
Risk note
Favourite price may be too short; avoid banker treatment.
Alternative watch: Draw · 31.8% · current draw odds — · min 3.52+. This is a cover/watch angle, not the model prediction.
Home
43%
Draw
31.8%
Away
25.2%
Current 1X2 oddsNo odds yet
Netherlands
—
Draw
—
Morocco
—
Current odds are bookmaker prices for this match. Minimum acceptable odds are Jarvis' required price after model probability and risk buffer. Bet only when current odds meet or beat the minimum.
Expected goals: 1.79 - 1.44
Draw cover advisedUnderdog live riskFavourite trap riskHigh volatilityHigh Consensus
Open match centre