Outrights
World Cup winner probabilities
Use this page for tournament winner and qualification probabilities. Outright bets should be treated separately from match bets because capital is tied up for longer and variance is higher.
Simulation
100,000
Latest published run.
Teams ranked
48
Winner probability table rows.
Execution rule
Price first
Only bet outrights when offered odds exceed model fair value plus margin.
Outright staking reminder
A team can be highly rated but still be a poor bet if the bookmaker price is too short. Compare the model winner probability with the available fixed odds before staking.
Read guideWinner and qualification table
Team
Qualify
QF
SF
Final
Winner