Risk engine

Draw, upset and trap watchlists

These lists are generated from the latest Jarvis simulation run. They are designed to prevent blind favourite betting and identify high-volatility matches.

TRAP_LISTCape Verde Islands vs Saudi ArabiaConfidence 54.6%

Saudi Arabia is favoured but not dominant; draw/upset risk remains material.

TRAP_LISTMexico vs Korea RepublicConfidence 54.4%

Mexico is favoured but not dominant; draw/upset risk remains material.

TRAP_LISTIran vs New ZealandConfidence 53%

Iran is favoured but not dominant; draw/upset risk remains material.

TRAP_LISTCzech Republic vs South AfricaConfidence 51.8%

Czech Republic is favoured but not dominant; draw/upset risk remains material.

TRAP_LISTBrazil vs MoroccoConfidence 51.7%

Brazil is favoured but not dominant; draw/upset risk remains material.

TRAP_LISTColombia vs PortugalConfidence 51.4%

Portugal is favoured but not dominant; draw/upset risk remains material.

TRAP_LISTEngland vs CroatiaConfidence 51.2%

England is favoured but not dominant; draw/upset risk remains material.

TRAP_LISTBelgium vs IranConfidence 50.9%

Belgium is favoured but not dominant; draw/upset risk remains material.

VALUE_EDGEMexico vs South AfricaConfidence 49.7%

Home: model edge 49.7 points vs current odds snapshot.

VALUE_EDGEKorea Republic vs Czech RepublicConfidence 37.9%

Away: model edge 37.9 points vs current odds snapshot.

VALUE_EDGEUnited States vs ParaguayConfidence 36.8%

Home: model edge 36.8 points vs current odds snapshot.

VALUE_EDGECanada vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaConfidence 34.7%

Home: model edge 34.7 points vs current odds snapshot.

UPSET_FLAGParaguay vs AustraliaConfidence 34.1%

Paraguay vs Australia: underdog route is live at 34.1%.

UPSET_FLAGJapan vs SwedenConfidence 34.1%

Japan vs Sweden: underdog route is live at 34.1%.

UPSET_FLAGNorway vs SenegalConfidence 33.9%

Norway vs Senegal: underdog route is live at 33.9%.

UPSET_FLAGTürkiye vs United StatesConfidence 33.8%

Türkiye vs United States: underdog route is live at 33.8%.

UPSET_FLAGCanada vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaConfidence 33.5%

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: underdog route is live at 33.5%.

UPSET_FLAGCzech Republic vs MexicoConfidence 32.3%

Czech Republic vs Mexico: underdog route is live at 32.3%.

UPSET_FLAGAustralia vs TürkiyeConfidence 31.9%

Australia vs Türkiye: underdog route is live at 31.9%.

UPSET_FLAGBosnia and Herzegovina vs QatarConfidence 31.4%

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar: underdog route is live at 31.4%.

VALUE_EDGECanada vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaConfidence 30.6%

Away: model edge 30.6 points vs current odds snapshot.

DRAW_WATCHParaguay vs AustraliaConfidence 29.8%

Paraguay vs Australia: draw probability 29.8%.

DRAW_WATCHTürkiye vs United StatesConfidence 29.6%

Türkiye vs United States: draw probability 29.6%.

DRAW_WATCHCongo DR vs UzbekistanConfidence 29.6%

Congo DR vs Uzbekistan: draw probability 29.6%.

DRAW_WATCHJapan vs SwedenConfidence 29.6%

Japan vs Sweden: draw probability 29.6%.

DRAW_WATCHNorway vs SenegalConfidence 29.5%

Norway vs Senegal: draw probability 29.5%.

DRAW_WATCHCanada vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaConfidence 29.4%

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: draw probability 29.4%.

VALUE_EDGECanada vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaConfidence 29.2%

Draw: model edge 29.2 points vs current odds snapshot.

DRAW_WATCHCzech Republic vs MexicoConfidence 29.1%

Czech Republic vs Mexico: draw probability 29.1%.

DRAW_WATCHAustralia vs TürkiyeConfidence 28.9%

Australia vs Türkiye: draw probability 28.9%.